When Clemson and Alabama kick off the Sugar Bowl, watch out for the big boys

NEW ORLEANS — The first version produced 95 points and 1,023 yards and giddiness in the Deep South, because the established favorite, Alabama, won. The second version produced three lead changes in the final five minutes, and the play with one second remaining — a two-yard touchdown pass — brought unparalleled joy across much of the Piedmont, because the understudy, Clemson, won this time.

Monday night, we have the third version. And after two previous battles in the past two years between Alabama and Clemson — games that have been decided by a total of nine points — what might we get in the Sugar Bowl?

“This is big-boy football,” Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney said at the last of his approximately one million news conferences here before this game.

In this big-boy football game, perhaps, then, the big boys will determine how it goes.

In their previous two games against the Crimson Tide — for whom Swinney once played as a walk-on wide receiver — the Tigers had no trouble moving the ball. They have 1,066 yards in the two games, and even though some of the primary cogs in those offenses are now gone — notably quarterback Deshaun Watson — the current version of the Tigers have plenty of talent as well. First-year starter Kelly Bryant has taken over for Watson behind center, and the Tigers last failed to surpass 30 points in October, five games ago.

Clemson can score. And yet …

“I think both teams have the capability of scoring points,” Alabama Coach Nick Saban said. “But I also think that both teams have pretty good defensive players.”

One indication: Alabama played 12 games this season and allowed 138 points. Clemson played 13 games this season and allowed 166 points. Work out those averages, and it’s 11.5 points allowed per game allowed by Alabama, 12.8 points allowed per game by Clemson.

Know who was better than those two averages?

No one.

So Clemson-Alabama 3.0 may not be 45-40, as the first version was, or 35-31, as the second version was.

Check out the big boys.

Clemson’s defensive front includes co-mountains Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins, providing 650 pounds of run-clogging mass at defensive tackle. Clelin Ferrell, the sophomore defensive end, is comparatively slight at a mere 265 pounds, but watch him affect a game. Each of those players was deemed good enough to be an all-ACC first-team selection. Ferrell was a first-team all-America selection by the Associated Press. Wilkins made the second team. They are talented.

So to bet on the Crimson Tide — which hasn’t played since Nov. 25, when it lost to rival Auburn and failed to qualify for the SEC Championship Game — is to bet on quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Alabama offense. Hurts is, in some quarters, viewed as a weak link, and yet he put the ball in the air 222 times this season and was intercepted exactly once.

Moreover, Hurts and junior running backs Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris combined to rush for 2,223 yards and 27 touchdowns. And yet, Clemson, with its incredibly stout front, allowed only five rushing touchdowns all season.

Know who allowed fewer?

No one.

So maybe Clemson’s front makes Hurts put the ball in the air. Maybe he can handle it, maybe he can’t.

“I think it’s very difficult to predict,” Saban said.

We no longer have to. Clemson-Alabama 3.0 kicks off within a few hours.